Anticipating the September 2023 CPI Report: What's in Store

September 2023 CPI Report Set to Unveil:
The eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2023 is just around the corner, scheduled for release on Thursday, October 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Core Inflation on the Decline:
Intriguingly, the data suggests that core inflation, excluding food and energy, has been on a gradual descent throughout much of 2023. This points to a cooling trend in inflationary pressures.

Headline Inflation Rises:
Despite the overall cooling trend in core inflation, the headline inflation rate is poised to increase in September. This surge can be primarily attributed to the surge in energy prices over the month, which is incorporated into the CPI report.

Unpacking Recent Trends:
Starting from March 2023, prices for goods and services have continued to climb, albeit at a notably more restrained pace compared to the brisk inflation seen in the years 2021-2022. This moderation in inflation is notably visible in the key categories scrutinized by the Federal Reserve, which include goods, services, and housing. In some categories, particularly within goods, such as a variety of food items and used cars, annual prices have even witnessed declines.

Energy Costs Spark Volatility:
A notable development is the recent upswing in energy costs, predominantly driven by surging oil prices. This contributed to the uptick in headline CPI in August and is anticipated to carry over into the September CPI report, given that it's based on September data. Nevertheless, it's worth mentioning that oil prices have experienced a sharp decline in October, which is expected to have a tempering effect on the CPI report for November. However, this correction won't be accounted for in the September CPI figures.

Stay tuned for the full Home of Money coverage of the September CPI report to get the latest insights into inflation trends and their implications on your financial landscape.

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